Tourism-Driven Economies and Income Disparity: Insights From a Regression Discontinuity Design
Abstract
This paper aims to answer two questions: (1) Does overtourism incline countries to favorise the capital asset holder instead of workers in income distribution? (2) Does income inequality come hand in hand with overtourism? Employing Kaldor's theory of income distribution, this study adapts its theoretical framework to assess countries with a specialization in tourism. The analysis encompasses data from 115 developed countries over the period of 2000 to 2019. A Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) methodology is utilized for the empirical investigation, categorizing key variables based on the exposure of a country's unit to a tourism-focused developmental strategy. The study reveals that adopting overtourism as a developmental strategy has led to increased inequality, characterized by a rising capital share and a declining labor share over time. Evidence supporting these findings is presented through both parametric and non-parametric Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) analyses. Robustness checks and placebo tests corroborate these results.
Povzetek
Namen tega prispevka je odgovoriti na dve vprašanji: (1) Ali prekomerni turizem spodbuja države, da pri porazdelitvi dohodka dajejo prednost imetnikom kapitalskih sredstev namesto delavcem? (2) Ali je dohodkovna neenakost povezana s prekomernim turizmom? Ta študija uporablja Kaldorjevo teorijo porazdelitve dohodka in njen teoretični okvir prilagaja za oceno držav, ki so specializirane za turizem. Analiza zajema podatke iz 115 razvitih držav v obdobju od leta 2000 do leta 2019. Za empirično preiskavo je uporabljena metodologija regresijskega diskontinuitetnega načrtovanja (RDD), ki ključne spremenljivke razvršča glede na izpostavljenost enote države razvojni strategiji, usmerjeni v turizem. Študija razkriva, da je sprejetje pretiranega turizma kot razvojne strategije povzročilo večjo neenakost, za katero je značilno, da se delež kapitala sčasoma povečuje, delež dela pa zmanjšuje. Dokazi, ki potrjujejo te ugotovitve, so predstavljeni s pomočjo parametričnih in neparametričnih analiz regresijske diskontinuitete (RDD). Preverjanja zanesljivosti in placebo testi potrjujejo te rezultate.
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References
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