Stochastic modelling of a low voltage distribution network operation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18690/jet.19.1.%25p.2026Keywords:
stochastic modelling, low voltage network, probability density, histogram, load flow, development planningAbstract
Modelling a low-voltage network operation is becoming increasingly challenging. In the past, deterministic methods adopted from sub-transmission and transmission network analysis were sufficient for operators to assess the operating conditions. However, changes in customer behaviour, household appliance structure, and the growing penetration of residential photovoltaics, EV charging, heat pumps, and air conditioning are altering operating conditions in low voltage networks significantly. Given the strongly stochastic nature of individual customer consumption and generation, deterministic methods are becoming less suitable for proper grid operation analysis and development planning.
This article presents a simple method for stochastic modelling of a network operation, where customer behaviour is described using a system of histograms. The presented approach enables in-depth investigation of operating conditions in low voltage networks, identifying potential operational extremes that compromise safety of operation, while also quantifying the frequency and probability of such events. Application of the method is demonstrated for a typical rural network.
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