Cycles of the Housing Market in Hungary from the Economic Crisis until Today

László  Harnos

László Harnos

Keywords: property market, housing market cycles, asset price bubble

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to identify the underlying reasons for the cyclical nature of the Hungarian housing market, in particular the business cycles, the construction, and market participants’ expectations. Our research was conducted based on analysis of statistical data and of the housing market indices. As a result, it can be stated that cyclic behaviour of the housing market may be explained primarily with business cycles, but state subsidies and mortgages also affect the variations. Accordingly, the increasing lending and the high amount of subsidies can generate a price bubble. The supply of second-hand dwellings looks more flexible compared with that of new ones. However, the expectations of market operators do not have a demonstrable effect on the housing market.

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Author Biography

László Harnos

PhD student at the Lámfalussy Sándor Department of Economics, University of Sopron, Hungary
E-mail: easy.harnos@gmail.com

László Harnos is a PhD candidate of István Széchenyi Management and Organisation Sciences Doctoral School at Lámfalussy Sándor Department of Economics, University of Sopron, Hungary. He received his MSc in business and management in 2009 at the Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary. He teaches finance and real estate valuation in vocational training. His research topics include real estate economics and regional and urban development.

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