What is the Nature of the Dynamics between Government Spending and Aggregate Output in the Nordic Countries?
Povzetek
Glavni namen tega članka je analiza razmerja med državno potrošnjo in agregatnim outputom v petih nordijskih državah v primeru dveh različnih scenarijev: prvič, v obdobjih, ko se državna potrošnja povečuje, in drugič, v obdobjih, ko se državna potrošnja zmanjšuje. Za testiranje prisotnosti kratkoročne in dolgoročne asimetrije pri odzivu outputa na državno potrošnjo uporabimo nelinearni ARDL model. Ključne ugotovitve so naslednje. Prvič, na podlagi linearnega modela je bila potrjena pozitivna povezava med državno potrošnjo in ekonomsko aktivnostjo tako na kratek kot na dolgi rok, kar je tudi v skladu z napovedmi ekonomske teorije. Drugič, na podlagi nelinearnega modela je šest od desetih kratkoročnih koeficientov ocenjenih za statistično značilne, prav tako šest od desetih dolgoročnih koeficientov, pri čemer je statistično značilna asimetrija odkrita v štirih od desetih primerov. Ocenjena testna statistika skupaj z grafično analizo tako kaže na prisotnost negativno nagnjene asimetrije v razmerju med državno potrošnjo in dinamiko agregatnega outputa z močnejšim odzivom outputa v obdobjih, ko se državna potrošnja zmanjšuje.
Prenosi
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