Does Debt Have Threshold Effects on Medium-Term Growth? Evidence from European Union Countries
Povzetek
Dolg je postal pomemben dejavnik gospodarske aktivnosti in v skladu z razvojem dolga so ga številni raziskovalci vključili v sodobne modele gospodarske rasti. Pozitivni vidik zadolževanja predstavlja glajenje osebne potrošnje, investicij podjetij in vladnih izdatkov v odnosu do njihovega dohodka, kar vodi v boljšo alokacijo kapitala v gospodarstvu. Vendar so se v zgodovini pojavljali primeri bankrotov držav in izkušnje iz evropske dolžniške krize s spremljajočimi ostrimi varčevalnimi ukrepi, ki so nas opozorile na nevarnost prekomerne ravni in bremena dolga. V tem prispevku raziskujemo obstoj morebitnega praga vpliva zadolževanja na gospodarsko rast, pri katerem se izražajo negativni učinki dolga na gospodarsko aktivnost. Izhajajoč iz pristopa Mika & Žumar (2017) obravnavamo obstoj pragov povezave med dolgom vlade, podjetij in gospodinjstev ter srednjeročno gospodarsko rastjo na vzorcu držav Evropske unije med leti 1995 in 2019. Prvič, na podlagi podatkov Eurostat-a o javnem in zasebnem dolgu smo potrdili konkavno obliko povezave med javnim dolgom in gospodarsko rastjo z maksimumom pri 116,6 odstotkih BDP. Pri zasebnem dolgu smo odkrili enoletni odložen vpliv zasebnega dolga na gospodarsko rast in potrdili konveksno obliko povezave z minimumom pri 149,8 odstotkih BDP. Drugič, s pomočjo podatkov iz Global Debt Database smo razdelili zasebni dolg na nefinančni korporativni oziroma podjetniški dolg in dolg gospodinjstev, s čimer smo lahko podrobneje proučevali povezavo med dolgom in gospodarsko rastjo. Med javnim dolgom in gospodarsko rastjo smo potrdili konkavno obliko povezave z maksimumom pri 104,8 odstotkih BDP. Za oba tipa zasebnega dolga smo potrdili predhodno ugotovljen odložen vpliv na gospodarsko rast in konveksno obliko povezave. Pri vplivu podjetniškega dolga na gospodarsko rast smo potrdili prag z minimumom pri 138,3 odstotkih BDP, medtem ko smo pri vplivu dolga gospodinjstev na gospodarsko rast potrdili prag z minimumom pri 145,1 odstotkih BDP. Poznavanje praga vpliva zadolževanja na gospodarsko rast nudi odločevalcem ekonomske politike pomembno sporočilo, saj lahko ti s pravočasnim in primernim ukrepanjem omogočijo bodisi višjo gospodarsko rast bodisi preprečijo potencialne negativne učinke prekomerne zadolženosti.
Prenosi
Literatura
Acosta-Ormaechea, S. (2020). Public Debt Dynamics and Intra-Year Exchange Rate Fluctuations. IMF Working Paper WP/20/261. Washington D. C.: IMF. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513561585.001
Aghion, P., & Kharroubi, E. (2013). Cyclical Macro Policy and Industry Growth: The Effect of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy. BIS Working paper No. 434. Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
Alfonso, A., & Alves, J. (2014). The Role of Government Debt in Economic Growth. WP16/2014/DE/UECE. Lisbon: Lisboa School of Economics & Management, Department of Economics.
Ali Abass, S. M., Belhocine, N., El-Ganainy, A., & Horton, M. (2011). Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt - Evidence from a New Database. IMF Economic Review, 59 (4), 717–742. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2011.24
Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2004). Economic Growth (Issue 2). Cambridge: The MIT Press.
Blanchard, O. (2022). Deciding When Debt Becomes Unsafe. Finance & Development (March 2022, p. 8-9). Washington D. C.: IMF.
Blanchard, O. J. (2021). Macroeconomics (Issue 8). Boston: Pearson Education.
Boskin, M. J. (2020). Are Lare Deficits and Debt Dangerous? NBER Working Paper No. 26727. Cambridge: NBER. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w26727
Brue, S. L., & Grant, R. R. (2013). The Evolution of Economic Thought (Issue 8). Mason: South-Western.
Caner, M., Grennes T., & Koehler-Geib, F. (2010). Finding the Tipping Point – When Sovereign Debt Turns Bad. The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5391. Washington D. C.: The World Bank. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1612407
Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M. S. & Zampolli F. (2011). The Real Effects of Debt. BIS Working Papers No. 352. Basel: BIS.
Checherita-Westphal, C., & Rother, P. (2012). The Impact of High Government Debt on Economic Growth and Its Channels: An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area.European Economic Review,56 (7),p.1392-1405.DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.06.007
Chudik, A., Mohaddes, K., Hashem Pesaran, M., & Raissi, M. (2015). Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth? IMF Working Paper WP/15/197. Washington D. C.: IMF. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513513355.001
De Rugy, V., & Salmon J. (2020). Debt and Growth: A Decade of Studies. Retrieved from: https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/de_rugy_and_salmon_-_policy_brief_-_debt_and_growth_a_decade_of_studies_-_v1.pdf.
Eberhardt, M., & Presbitero, A. F. (2015). Public Debt and Growth: Heterogeneity and Non-linearity. Journal of International Economics, 97(1), p. 45-58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.04.005
Eurostat (2021a). Main GDP Aggregates per Capita. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/NAMA_10_PC/default/table.
Eurostat (2021b). Population Change - Demographic Balance and Crude Rates at National Level. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/DEMO_GIND/default/table.
Eurostat (2021c). Private Sector Debt, Consolidated - % of GDP. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/ products-datasets/-/tipspd20.
Eurostat (2021d). Government Deficit/Surplus, Debt and Associated Data. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/GOV_10DD_EDPT1/default/table?lang=en.
Eviews (2021). Eviews Help. Retrieved from http://www.eviews.com/help/helpintro.html#page/content%2Fpool-Pooled_Estimation.html%23ww187927.
Gaspar, V., Medas, P., & Perrelli, R. (2021). Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion. Retrieved from https://blogs.imf.org/2021/12/15/global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion/.
Gómez-Puig, M., & Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2018). Nonfinancial Debt and Economic Growth in Euro-area Countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 56 (1), 17-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2018.03.005
Gujarati, D. N. (2015). Econometrics by Example (2. iss.). London: Palgrave.
Hasanov, F., & Cheriff, R. (2012). Public Debt Dynamics: The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks. IMF Working Paper WP12/230. Washington D. C.: IMF. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475510553.001
Herndon, T., Ash, M., & Pollin R. (2013). Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 38 (2), 257-279. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bet075
IMF (2021a). Consumer Price Index (CPI). Retrieved from https://data.imf.org/?sk=4FFB52B2-3653-409A-B471-D47B46D904B5.
IMF (2021b). Global Debt Database. Retrieved 1. 4. 2022 from IMF Global Debt Database: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/GDD.
Lim, J. J. (2019). Growth in the Shadow of Debt. Journal of Banking and Finance, 103 (1), 98-112. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.04.002
Mencinger, J., Aristovnik, A., & Verbic, M. (2014). The Impact of Growing Public Debt on Economic Growth in the European Union. Amfiteatru Economic Journal, 16 (35), 403-414.
Mika, A., & Žumer, T. (2017). Indebtedness in the EU: A Drag or a Catalyst for Growth? ECB Working Paper No.2118. Frankfurt: ECB. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3092217
Panizza, U., & Presbitero, A. F. (2013). Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 149 (2), 175-204. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03399388
Perkis, D. F. (2020). Making Sense of Private Debt. Retrieved from https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2020/03/02/making-sense-of-private-debt.
Pescatori, A., Sandri, D., & Simon, J. (2014). Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold? IMF Working Paper WP/14/34. Washington D. C.: IMF. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484306444.001
Pfajfar, L. (2018). Osnovna ekonometrija (Issue 2). Ljubljana: School of Economics and Business Ljubljana.
Randveer, M., Uusküla, L., & Kulu, L. (2011). The Impact of Private Debt on Economic Growth. Bank of Estonia Working Paper Series 10/2011. Talinn: Eesti Pank.
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review, 100 (2), 573-578. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.573
The World Bank (2021a). Gross Savings (% of GDP). Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS.
The World Bank (2021b). Trade (% of GDP). Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS.
The World Bank (2021c). Age Dependency Ratio (% of Working-age Population). Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.DPND.
The World Bank (2021d). Secondary Education, Duration. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.SEC.DURS.
United Nations Development Programme (2021). Mean Years of Schooling (years). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/en/indicators/103006#.
