Conditionals and Conditional Degrees of Belief

Abstract

The paper continues the work David Lewis started with his triviality results, which occur if we understand the conditional probabilities as probabilities of conditionals. The paper does not limit to philosophy of probability and conditionals, and applies the results to analysis of individual agent's beliefs. It concludes that we cannot understand conditional degrees of belief as degrees of belief in conditionals. It shows the possibility to understand conditional degrees of beliefs as dispositions. It thus tries to bridge philosophical-logical accounts of probability and degrees of belief and psychological accounts of reasoning. It also discusses what conditional degrees of belief actually are and points out possibilities for new interdisciplinary researches of conditional beliefs.