Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability with Panel Unit Root, Cointegration, and Granger Causality Tests: Evidence from the Broader Groups of Countries

Nejc Fir — 2024-10-01

The question of fiscal sustainability of countries has become one of the central topics in economic policy, especially in times of increasing public debts. One way to assess fiscal sustainability is to examine compliance with the intertemporal budget constraint, which involves testing the stationarity of government revenues and expenditures, the primary budget balance, and the first differences of public debt. Part of this approach includes testing cointegration and causality among different pairs of variables. Under this approach, the paper is focused on both first- and second-generation panel unit root tests, cointegration, and Granger causality test. This paper focuses on assessing the fiscal sustainability of four panels of countries divided by continents: Europe, Asia and Oceania, Africa, and Latin America, the Caribbean, and North America. It has been found that fiscal sustainability is present in all the broader groups of countries considered but in a weak form. Fiscal sustainability was confirmed when considering a constant in calculations, while deviations were observed among groups of countries when both a constant and trend were considered. The study serves as a starting point for a more extensive analysis of fiscal sustainability. For more accurate findings, it would be necessary to categorize countries into smaller and economically more homogeneous groups and analyze them using other fiscal sustainability methods as well.

Artificial Intelligence in Employee Learning Process: Insights from Generation Z

Branka Zolak Poljašević — 2024-10-01

Artificial intelligence, as a field of computer science focused on developing technologies that simulate intelligent behaviours and human cognitive functions, undoubtedly has huge potential to transform all business activities, including the process of employee learning. However, different generations have varying attitudes toward the rapid advancement of technology and the increasing possibilities offered by artificial intelligence. The general purpose of this research is to gain insights into the attitudes of Generation Z regarding the use of AI in the context of the employee learning process. Empirical research was conducted on a sample of 264 respondents from Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In addition to descriptive statistics, Cronbach's alpha, Shapiro-Wilk, and Mann-Whitney tests were used to test hypotheses. Generally, the research findings indicate that the upcoming generation of the workforce considers artificial intelligence a significant factor in improving the employee learning process. The study contributes to human resource management literature because it brings new insights into Generation Z attitudes, whose participation in the active workforce will significantly increase in the coming years.

Transformative Dynamics of the Economy of Kosovo: A Perspective on History and Development of Foreign Direct Investment

Jeton Zogjani — 2024-10-01

This paper presents an in-depth overview of foreign direct investments (FDI) in Kosovo's economy over more than twenty years. FDI has played a central role, proving indispensable to the development of Kosovo's economy. Thus, FDI is primarily directed towards economic activities like real estate, finance, manufacturing, construction, etc. In terms of the legal framework, Kosovo has approved a range of regulations and laws with the primary goal of protecting, attracting and encouraging foreign investors to invest. However, obstacles such as political instability, energy insecurity, delayed EU integration, and regional political tensions are recognized as the main barriers affecting FDI in Kosovo. Finally, Kosovo should develop suitable policies to boost its investment competitiveness, attract multinational enterprises for investment opportunities, and prioritize less attractive economic sectors for investment of FDI.

Is There a Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Adem Abdić — 2024-10-01

The economic growth and development of a country are reflected in many aspects, one of them being the stock market indices. The purpose of the article is to examine and determine the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and stock market indices in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Using quarterly data over the 2010q1-2019q4 period, a cointegration analysis was applied to model this relationship. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to explore the short-run relationship as well as the long-run relationship. The article examined the predictive ability among variables of interest by applying the Granger causality test. The results indicate a stable long-run relationship between the analysed macroeconomic variables and stock market indices in BiH, while no short-run relationship was found. The results contribute to the scientific discussions about the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and representative stock market indices in BiH which considers their direction and strength.

Transformative Economic Challenges: The Impact of COVID-19 and the War in Ukraine on the European Union

Ivan Todorov — 2024-10-01

This paper aims to explore the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on the twenty-seven European Union (EU) member states, known as the EU-27. A vector autoregression (VAR) of quarterly data for the period 2020–2022 was employed to study the impact of the coronavirus and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on growth, unemployment and inflation in the EU-27. The results from the empirical analysis indicated that the war in Ukraine lowered growth and raised inflation and unemployment, while the COVID-19 pandemic did not affect growth, increased unemployment and decreased inflation in the EU-27. It may be concluded that the war in Ukraine shifted the EU aggregate supply curve to the left, whereas the coronavirus pandemic resulted in inflation-unemployment trade-off in the EU.

Omissions by Design in a Survey: Is This a Good Choice when using Structural Equation Models?

Paula C. R. Vicente — 2024-10-01

Missing observations can arise due to the effort required to answer many questions in long surveys and the cost required to obtain some responses. Implementing a planned missing design in surveys helps reduce the number of questions each respondent needs to answer, thereby lowering survey fatigue and cutting down on implementation costs. The three-form and the two-method design are two different types of planned missing designs. An important consideration when designing a study with omissions by design is to know how it will affect statistical results. In this work, a simulation study is conducted to analyze how the usual fit measures, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA), standardized root mean square residual (SRMR), comparative fit index (CFI), and Tucker-Lewis index (TLI) perform in the adjustment of a Structural Equation Model. The results revealed that the CFI, TLI, and SRMR indices exhibit sensitivity to omissions with small samples, low factor loadings and large models. Overall, this study contributes to our understanding of the importance of considering omissions by design in market research.